版主所說的跟Taleb 在 Fooled by Randomness 裡所說的類似：(借用Google AI Mode的結果） Taleb was asked for his view on the stock market. He stated he believed the market was likely to go slightly up over the next week with a high probability (around 70%), but also revealed he was heavily short the S&P 500 futures (betting on it going down).
是否可以解讀成股價跟不上投資人的期望
是啊, 因為股價無法反應成長性了. 不管是回落或盤整盤跌都是無法達到我們的預期報酬啊.
謝謝版主🙏
版主所說的跟Taleb 在 Fooled by Randomness 裡所說的類似：(借用Google AI Mode的結果） Taleb was asked for his view on the stock market. He stated he believed the market was likely to go slightly up over the next week with a high probability (around 70%), but also revealed he was heavily short the S&P 500 futures (betting on it going down).
重點應該在不對稱獲利。
是的，如果有衍生性商品可以組合出許多看法及策略。所以很難從單一部位看出方向性，就像只有put是看空，但如果又有現貨部位那就可能避險了。而且像這樣投資人的部位是我們一般投資人較無法模仿的，但背後邏輯我們可以思考看看。